Analysis of the structure and quality of solar radiation data from ERA5 reanalysis for short-term forecasting in the Far North
Abstract
Analysis of the structure and quality of solar radiation data from ERA5 reanalysis for short-term forecasting in the Far North
Incoming article date: 04.05.2025The article considers the assessment of the suitability of solar radiation data from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis for forecasting problems in the northern territories. The experimental site of the Mukhrino station (Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug), equipped with an autonomous power supply system, was chosen as the object of analysis. A statistical analysis of the annual array of global horizontal insolation data obtained using the PVGIS platform has been carried out. Seasonal and diurnal features of changes in insolation are considered, distribution profiles are constructed, and emissions are estimated using the interquartile range method. It is established that the data are characterized by high variability and the presence of a large number of zero values due to polar nights and weather conditions. The identified features must be taken into account when building short-term forecasting models. The conclusion is made about the acceptable quality of ERA5 data for use in forecasting energy generation and consumption in heating systems.
Keywords: ERA5, solar radiation, horizontal insolation, the Far North, statistical analysis, forecasting, emissions analysis, renewable energy sources, energy supply to remote areas, time series, intelligent generation management