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  • Approach to modelling the yield curve as a multivariate time series

    The study presents an approach to modelling multivariate time series using parameterisation, using yield curve as an example. The effectiveness of adding parameterisation coefficients to predicates is evaluated, and new loss functions are proposed that focus on modelling the shape of the curve. Prediction models including LSTM, Prophet and hybrid combinations were applied. A Python-based system was developed to automate data processing and evaluation. The method improves the accuracy and interpretability of forecasts, offering a promising tool for financial modelling.

    Keywords: machine learning, financial engineering, stock market modeling, bond market

  • The application of mathematical modeling for forecasting corporate bond spreads

    This study analyzes classical machine learning methods applied to the prediction of corporate bond yield spreads. Both linear methods, such as Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least Squares, and nonlinear methods, such as copula regression and adaptive regression splines, are examined. The study also explores the potential application of Random Forest models and classical neural networks. It includes a description of the data used for forecasting and presents some results of the empirical analysis. The findings have the potential to significantly impact practitioners and the scientific community striving to improve forecasting accuracy and optimize investment strategies.

    Keywords: Machine Learning, Financial Engineering, Stock Market Modeling, Bond Market