Using the Monty Hall paradox in project management tasks. Part II. Use in combination with Blotto game models. A task with random intelligence

Abstract

Using the Monty Hall paradox in project management tasks. Part II. Use in combination with Blotto game models. A task with random intelligence

Artyshchenko S.V., Barkalov S.A., Baev S.A., Serebryakova E.A., Panfilov D.V.

Incoming article date: 15.07.2023

In this paper, we investigate the possibility of applying the theory of Monty Hall's paradox in tasks that require the need for an optimal choice of a strategy for developing the innovative potential of an enterprise. The article provides recommendations for taking into account and constructive use of the effects that affect the involved experts, in particular, the Condorcet principle and paradox. The paper explores the limits of applicability of the Monty Hall paradox theory. Its applicability is determined, together with considerations about the profitability of changing the initial choice in problems with the so-called "random intelligence".

Keywords: decision support systems, mathematical modeling, expert evaluation, Monty Hall's paradox, project management, collective assessment, Condorcet's paradox, enterprise management, assessment of enterprise characteristics