The article is devoted to the problems of managing the implementation of multi-scenario, multi-stage projects under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed approach is based on representing the project model in the form of a scenario network. The developed fuzzy linguistic model of a project stage is a set of linguistic variables corresponding to the stage indicators and external factors influencing the subsequent implementation of the project. The decisive rules for choosing the arc of transition to the next stage are constructed in the form of fuzzy products, the left parts of which are fuzzy statements regarding the preference of possible options. The constructed decision support procedure is based on the use of the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm, which has high interpretability. The proposed approach allows for multi-scenario planning and adaptability of management of the implementation of multi-stage projects.

Keywords: multi-scenario multi-stage projects, adaptive project management, scenario network, decision support, linguistic variable, fuzzy inference

The work is devoted to the problem of providing electrical energy to remote production enterprises in the absence of a centralized power supply. The purpose of the work is to develop decision support tools for choosing autonomous power generation projects from a large number of possible alternatives. To achieve this purpose, a hierarchy of criteria was constructed and a comparative analysis of existing technical and economic solutions in the field of small-scale autonomous energy was carried out. It is shown that when choosing a power generation project for a particular enterprise, there is a fairly large number of alternatives, which makes the use of commonly used decision support procedures based on the hierarchy analysis method/analytical network method (in the classical version) ineffective. An iterative procedure with dynamic changes in feedback between criteria and alternatives is proposed, which makes it possible to reduce the dimension of the supermatrix during the calculation process and, thereby, reduce the time complexity of the algorithms. The effectiveness of the proposed modification of the analytical network method is confirmed by calculations. The constructed procedure for selecting an autonomous power generation project makes it possible to increase the level of scientific validity of technical and economic decisions when expanding the production activities of small enterprises in remote and sparsely populated areas.

Keywords: autonomous power system, decision support, analytical network method

The work is devoted to the problem of decision support in the field of information security. The aim of the work is to build (within the framework of the game-theoretic approach) an iterative procedure for determining a mixed game strategy for ensuring information security under the uncertainty of the state of the protected object and countering an intruder. The use of the methodological apparatus of simulation modeling (along with the use of the Brown-Robinson fictitious enactment method) is due to the possible non-Poisson type of event flows leading to a change in the state of the protected object, as well as the complexity of solving stochastic games with three participants. The application of the developed procedure makes it possible to increase the scientific validity of managerial decisions on the choice of protection strategies for stochastically dynamic (changing their state randomly) objects.

Keywords: information security, uncertainty, counteraction, game-theoretic approach, simulation modeling

The work is devoted to the problems of protecting the document management system of public administration bodies. The aim of the work is to build a simulation model of the implementation of a targeted computer attack, taking into account the simultaneous (occurring with a slight delay) response of the security tools of the document management system. For modeling, it is proposed to use the apparatus of Petri-Markov networks, combining the representation of the change of states of the attacked system in the form of Markov (semi-Markov) processes and the expressive capabilities of Petri nets to describe the interaction of processes. The constructed model reflects both the specifics of attacks with increased user privileges, and the features of document processing processes, as well as the mechanisms used to counteract unauthorized access. Computational experiments conducted using the constructed simulation model allow us to assess possible risks and make a decision on choosing the most effective system of protection against the considered type of attacks.

Keywords: electronic document management system, computer attack, simulation modeling, Petri-Markov network

The work is devoted to the problems of strategic planning in the digital technology market. The aim of the work is to build a decision support procedure for choosing a strategy, based on internal (related to the characteristics of the firm choosing the strategy) and external (conditioned by the state of the market) factors. It is assumed that the elementary strategy is described by the type, direction and applied area of activity. In this case, the possibility of combining several elementary strategies is considered. The main result of the work is a procedure for choosing a combined strategy based on the application of a genetic algorithm. The use of the methodological apparatus of evolutionary calculations is due to the large number of possible options for combined strategies and the complexity of their evaluation, which makes a complete enumeration of options impractical. The final choice is made by the decision maker based on their own preferences.

Keywords: IT market, decision support, genetic algorithm

The article deals with the problem of studying the functioning of the document management system under unauthorized influences, the relevance and practical significance of which is due to the peculiarity of the requirements for ensuring the protection of confidential information, and the significance of damage in case of disruption of the uninterrupted flow of documents circulating in the system. To model the processes of functioning of the electronic document management system, an approach based on the use of the apparatus of Petri-Markov networks is proposed, which allows taking into account the statistical nature of the processes of receipt of documents for processing and manifestations of impacts from intentional threats to information security. Within the framework of the proposed approach, a model of the functioning of the electronic document management system under the influence of ARP-spoofing attacks, which are a common type of threats to information systems in the public administration sphere, has been developed. At the same time, the options for the impact of threats in the absence of technical means of information protection and their application are considered. The constructed model can be used when conducting computational experiments to determine the most effective means of information protection of electronic document management systems.

Keywords: electronic document management system, unauthorized impact, simulation modeling, Petri-Markov networks

The work is devoted to the problems of using modern digital technologies to manage the implementation of programs for the development of regional socio-economic systems. An approach based on the use of intelligent (knowledge-oriented) informationsystems for monitoring and analyzing the progress of programs is proposed. As a model for representing knowledge about the subject area, it is proposed to use the apparatus of the theory of linguistic variables and fuzzy production rules, which makes it possible to take into account the high level of uncertainty due to both the specifics of socio-economic processes and possible changes in external conditions. The inference engine included in the information system is based on the explicitly interpreted procedure of Mamdani's fuzzy logical inference, which makes it possible to form explanations of the course of reasoning. The developed structure of the intellectual information system is a concretization and expansion of the traditional structure, taking into account the reflection of the specifics of the tasks of managing the implementation of programs for the socio-economic development of the region. The preliminary results of the experimental operation of the research prototype of the developed system can serve as confirmation of the effectiveness of the proposed design solutions.

Keywords: regional socio-economic program, linguistic variable, fuzzy production rule, fuzzy logical inference, information and analytical system