To analyze such significant indicator of the locomotive industry as the value of import customs payments, the dependence of the volume of import customs payments on weight, cost, weighted average rate and dollar exchange rate is examined. Mathematical modeling was carried out on the basis of monthly data during the period from 2019 up to 2021 of the volumes of customs payments and their parameters of the Group 86 of the Customs nomenclature of EAEU FEA "Railway locomotives or tram motor cars, rolling stock and their parts; track equipment and devices for railways or tram tracks and their parts; mechanical (including electromechanical) signaling equipment of all types". The interrelations of these variables are represented by a system of simultaneous structural equations. The import substitution trend developing in Russia implies strengthening the development of national industries and, accordingly, pursuing a customs policy that implies support for domestic producers and reduction of import supplies. Thus, it is relevant to determine the impact of various factors on the amount of customs duties levied by the customs authorities on foreign economic activity (FEA) participants in operations involving the import of spare parts and other goods for the locomotive building industry to make the right strategic decisions concerning customs restrictions on imports of goods of this industry.

Keywords: locomotive building industry, mathematical modeling, linear multiple regression, multicollinearity, system of simultaneous equations, identification, structural form of the model, reduced form of the model

The article deals with building a seasonal model with a linear growth of the Winter’s statistic value, on the basis of which the parameters are calculated: the customs value index and the weighted average rate, which are the composition of the calculation formula of customs payments. To build the model, the monthly data of the customs statistics on imports of 28 commodity group “Products of inorganic chemistry; inorganic or organic compounds of precious metals, rare earth metals, radioactive elements or isotopes” of the Customs Nomenclature of the external economic activity of EAEU from 01.01. 2018 up to 31.12.2020 are used in the region of activity of the Southern Customs Administration.

Keywords: time series, econometric modeling, forecasting, adaptation parameter, seasonality coefficients, adaptive model

In the given article a regression model of the labor productivity index from the investment dynamics into the fixed capital for the Central Federal District is build. The time series regression model is constructed by means of the trend deviation method. According to the obtained econometric model, a forecast of the labor productivity index for subsequent periods is made.

Keywords: econometric model, forecasting, labor productivity index, investment, regression, time series, trend

The articlegives an econometric analysis of the volume of the Customs payments for imports of the group 25 “Salt; sulfur; soils and stone; plaster materials, lime and cement” of the Customs Nomenclatureof the foreign trade activities of EAEU, the Customs declaration of which is carried out in the region of the Rostov Customs office operation. For the purpose of forecasting, a multiplicative model of the series is constructed based on monthly data from 01.01.2017 to 31.10.2019. The apparatus of fictitious variables is used to obtain the trend equation. A forecast is made on the basis of the received model.

Keywords: import, Customs payments, econometric model, trend, seasonal component, fictitious variables, multiplicative model, forecast

The article describes a trend-seasonal adaptive model of the time series of the import volume of the Republic of Kazakhstan according to the quarter data in the period from 2013 to 2018. According to the obtained model, the forecast of the imports volume in the value terms for the first quarter of 2019has been made.

Keywords: Republic of Kazakhstan, import, multiplicative model, exponential smoothing, adaptive model, forecasting, trend equation

The econometric analysis of GDP per capita in the Russian Federation is being given. The number of the departured people from the Russian Federation, nominal average charged wages and exports volume are used as the exogenous variety. The received model of the multiple linear regression is being studied for quality.

Keywords: gross domestic product, GDP per capita, econometrics analysis, multiple linear regression model, endogenous variety, exogenous variety, heteroskedasticity

The article deals with the construction of the exponential smoothing model and seasonal model of the time series on monthly weight data (kg) on imports of commodity groups 07 «Vegetables and certain edible root crops and tuber crops» from 01.2014 up to 09.2017 in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation. According to the derived model the forecast has been made for October, November and December of 2017 by the weight of the product group 07 in the region of the Southern Customs Administration operation.

Keywords: econometrics, time series, adaptive methods, exponential moving average, modeling, seasonality coefficient, forecasting

This article deals with the carrying out of econometric analysis by means of panel data models (pooled model, fixed effects model) of the volume of innovative goods, works and services in the Russian Federation (RF) from 2010 up to 2014 years. The dependence has been revealed between the volume of innovative goods, works, services and such explanatory factors as the number of personnel involved in scientific research and development; internal expenses for the scientific researched and development of the Russian Federation; used advanced manufacturing technologies; coefficient of inventive activity; innovation activity of organizations.

Keywords: econometric analysis, panel data, innovation, science, integrated model of panel data (pooled model), a model of panel data with fixed effects (fixed effects model)

In this paper we study the dependence of the number of workplaces created by the amount of investments with the help of econometric models on the example of the list of 100 projects Gubernatorial the Rostov region at the stage of implementation. To ensure the comparability of the factors considered, and obtaining reliable results of research one sector industrial production is analyzed

Keywords: econometric model, investment activity, investment planning, the cost of the investment project, workplace, multiply linear regression, dummy shift variable, dummy variable tilt

Econometric analysis of the marriages number in Russia is presented in this article for the reflec-tion and predict of seasonal fluctuations. The additive model explaining 95% of the total variation of the time series levels of the of the marriages number during the study period is built.

Keywords: seasonal component, time series, marriages, econometric model, trend, random component, mov-ing average, analytical alignment

An econometric model, expressed as a system of simultaneous equations, must be constructed to analyze the crop production dependence on the investments amount, used fertilizer, number of tractors and sown arias.

Keywords: crop production, agriculture, linear multiple regression, the system of simultaneous equations, determination coefficient, endogenous variable.

One of the most important problems of demographic statistics is studying of natural movement of the population. One of the major indicators of studying the natural movement is the rate of birth. In this article econometric models of linear regression of dependence of birth rate of the population from security with the medical personnel and expenses on health care, physical culture and sport were constructed.The importance of the constructed models and their parameters is checked, the forecast becomes.

Keywords: birth rate of the population, demographic policy, econometric models, multiple and pair linear regression, importance of model